In a notable shift within the financing landscape, private credit lenders are expected to take an increasingly dominant role, particularly in areas traditionally led by banking institutions. A report from Bloomberg, referencing findings from Bloomberg Intelligence’s Fall 2025 Private Credit Survey, highlights that these lenders could replace as much as 15% of conventional fixed-income investments. This figure reflects a five percentage point increase from BI’s previous survey conducted in April 2025 and a four point increase compared to the prior year.
The survey indicates a strong sentiment among financial professionals, with 75% of lenders and 64% of fund managers anticipating an uptick in the deployment of private credit over the next 12 months. A key area where private lenders are expected to thrive is in asset-backed deals, which are perceived to offer higher returns relative to direct lending, while also presenting lower risks.
Despite this optimistic outlook, the overall growth forecast for the private credit market is more tempered, with projections suggesting a growth rate of only around 5% annually in the medium term. This marks a decline from the 10% growth rate seen over the previous five years, largely attributed to uncertainties arising from ongoing trade wars, which have dampened expectations.
As the industry evolves, private credit lenders are likely to reshape the competitive landscape, providing new opportunities for investors and potentially changing the dynamics for traditional banks. With this shift, shareholders in both private credit firms and traditional banks will need to carefully consider the implications of this evolving market.
The timeline for these changes is expected to unfold over the next year, as lenders respond to the evolving market conditions and regulatory environment. While specific regulatory approvals were not detailed in the report, any significant shift in lending practices may attract scrutiny from regulatory bodies concerned about market competition and consumer protection.
Overall, the findings from this survey indicate a pivotal moment for private credit, as these lenders prepare to capitalize on emerging opportunities while navigating a climate of uncertainty.